November 18, 2025 – Bitcoin just printed $89,420, its lowest level since February. That single candle erased every bit of 2025’s gains and pushed the price down more than 29% from the October all-time high of $126,250.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 11 – the lowest since the 2022 bear market. We are officially in “extreme fear” territory.
This is not a crypto-specific meltdown. BTC is simply doing what it always does in risk-off environments: acting like the most leveraged tech stock on earth.
What Actually Broke the Market
A confirmed death cross (50-day MA under 200-day MA) combined with a clean break of the 200-day moving average.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have gone from +$25B earlier this year to dead flat / negative for almost two weeks straight. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw a record ~$1.26B outflow this month.
Corporate treasury buyers (MicroStrategy-style) have hit the pause button.
OG whales who stacked pre-2024 continue distributing at the fastest pace of the cycle.
Newer buyers (last 12–24 months) are panic-selling 20–50% gains because “the bull market peaked in 2025” FUD is everywhere.
“The recent sell off is from newish buyers… They bought in the last 12-18 months… and are ‘taking profit’ for 20%-30% fiat gains… This cohort of sellers is also depleted, and HODLers with conviction have now taken their coins.”
Sentiment this bad almost never lasts. On-chain data shows long-term holders are absorbing supply, Bitcoin dominance is spiking (alts getting wrecked first), and the Fear & Greed Index below 15 in a post-halving bull year has always marked monster reversals.
Top Bottom-Calling Tweets Right Now
“Bitcoin is literally free at $91,000. The bottom is near, and then BTC will pump straight to $150,000!!”
“I’ve only seen sentiment this bad 3 times before: 2018 lows, COVID crash, FTX collapse. Things can stay negative for awhile, but I find it hard to believe we’re closer to the top than to the bottom.”
In this insightful podcast episode from “Accelerate with Mert,” Balaji Srinivasan explores the shifting global landscape, contrasting the declining Western powers—particularly America as an invisible empire—with the rising centralized might of China. He frames the future as a dynamic tension between China’s vertically integrated “Apple-like” system (nation, state, and network in one) and the decentralized, open “Android” of the internet. Crypto emerges as a crucial “backup” for core American values like freedom, capitalism, and self-sovereignty, evolving from Bitcoin’s foundational role to Ethereum’s programmability, and now prioritizing privacy through zero-knowledge (ZK) technologies. Balaji stresses that crypto’s ideological essence—providing an exit from failed banks and political systems, with privacy as the missing piece—is as vital as its commercial applications. He envisions network states as physical manifestations of online communities, rebooting civilization amid Western collapse.
Introduction
The podcast “Accelerate with Mert,” hosted by Mert Kurttutan, delivers thought-provoking discussions on technology, geopolitics, and innovation. In episode ACC 1.8, released on November 12, 2025, Mert welcomes Balaji Srinivasan, a renowned entrepreneur, investor, and futurist known for his roles as former CTO of Coinbase, co-founder of Earn.com (acquired by Coinbase), and author of “The Network State.” With over 2,367 views shortly after release, the episode titled “Balaji Srinivasan: The Future of Crypto Is Private” weaves personal stories, macroeconomic analysis, and a deep dive into cryptocurrency’s role in a multipolar world. Balaji’s signature blend of historical analogies, technological optimism, and geopolitical realism makes this a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of tech and global power dynamics.
Personal Connections and the Catalyst for Change
The conversation begins on a personal note, highlighting the real-world impact of Balaji’s influence. Mert recounts how Balaji was the first notable figure to DM him on Twitter (now X) in 2020 or 2021, responding to a tweet about Balaji’s 1729 bounty platform—a now-defunct initiative that rewarded users for completing tasks related to technology and innovation. This interaction boosted Mert’s confidence in building an online presence, proving that insightful content could attract attention regardless of follower count.
Adding another layer, Mert shares how a discussion with Balaji and investor Naval Ravikant convinced him to leave Canada for Dubai. They warned of Canada’s downward trajectory—citing issues like economic stagnation, overregulation, and political instability—contrasting it with Dubai’s rapid growth, business-friendly environment, and appeal to global talent. Balaji reinforces this by noting the broader trend: the East (including Dubai and Riyadh) is ascending, while the West copes with decline. This personal anecdote sets the tone for the episode’s exploration of global shifts, emphasizing how individual decisions mirror larger geopolitical movements.
Framing the World: East vs. West, State vs. Internet
Balaji introduces a compelling framework inspired by Ray Dalio’s analysis of empires and the ideas in “The Sovereign Individual.” He argues that the postwar Western order is crumbling, with the future defined by “China plus/versus the internet.” China represents a centralized, vertically integrated powerhouse—akin to Apple—where nation (Han Chinese culture), state (Communist Party), and network (Great Firewall-insulated apps) align seamlessly under one authority. With 1.4 billion people, China operates as a self-sufficient civilization, immune to external disruptions like Anglo-internet trends.
In contrast, the West is decentralizing into “American anarchy,” marked by internal divisions (blue, red, and tech America) and a sovereign debt crisis. Balaji points to financial indicators: rising U.S. Treasury yields signaling eroding creditworthiness, while investors flock to Chinese bonds, gold, and “digital gold” (crypto). Militarily, he cites U.S. admissions of inferiority, such as China’s hypersonic missiles outpacing American defenses and a single Chinese shipyard outproducing the entire U.S. Navy.
Drawing historical parallels, Balaji likens the internet’s disruption of the West to Christianity’s role in Rome’s fall. Social media embodies “ultra-democracy” (like Gorbachev’s glasnost), and crypto “ultra-capitalism” (perestroika), unleashing forces that fragment established powers. Yet, just as Christianity rebooted civilization via the Holy Roman Empire, the internet could synthesize a new order. China, meanwhile, has “inactivated” communism’s destructive elements post-Deng Xiaoping, fusing it with 5,000 years of tradition to create a stable alloy—nationalist in practice, communist in name only.
Balaji warns of China’s “monkey’s paw” foreign policy: non-interference abroad, but exporting surveillance tech to prop up regimes in places like Venezuela or Iran, ensuring resource extraction without ideological meddling. This contrasts sharply with Western neoconservatism/neoliberalism, which he critiques for overreach.
America as the Greatest Empire: Rise, Achievements, and Inevitable Decline
Challenging conventional narratives, Balaji defends America as not merely a country but “the greatest empire of all time”—invisible yet omnipresent. With 750 military bases, the UN headquartered in New York, and exported regulations (e.g., FDA, SEC standards), America shaped global norms. Culturally, it dominated via Hollywood, McDonald’s, and blue jeans; economically, through the dollar’s reserve status.
He traces this to World War II: Pre-1939, America avoided empire-building, focusing inward. But with Britain faltering against Nazis, FDR’s administration pivoted to global dominance to prevent fascist or Soviet hegemony. The result? A “rules-based order” where America made the rules, promoting democratic capitalism over alternatives.
Yet, Balaji argues, this empire is fading. Economic defeat is evident in the flight from U.S. bonds; military setbacks include failed decoupling from China and dependencies on Chinese suppliers for weapons. Politically, fragmentation erodes unity. He rebuffs accusations of anti-Americanism, praising innovations in science, technology, culture, and politics, but insists on facing reality: Empires rise and fall, and denial (e.g., on inflation, COVID origins, or Biden’s decline) accelerates collapse.
The Ideological Heart of Crypto: Beyond Commerce to Self-Sovereignty
Transitioning to crypto, Balaji echoes the episode’s title: “Crypto isn’t just about the commercial part. It’s about the ideological part.” It’s a response to systemic failures—banks, politics—and a tool for exit and self-sovereignty. Privacy, he asserts, is the missing link.
He outlines crypto’s evolution: Bitcoin as the base layer (2009-2017), proving digital scarcity; Ethereum introducing programmability (2017-2025), enabling smart contracts, DEXes, NFTs, stablecoins, and scalability solutions like L2s. Today, crypto banks the unbanked globally—in Bolivia, prices are quoted in Tether; in Nigeria, savings in Bitcoin—operating 24/7 on smartphones.
Looking ahead (2025-2033), privacy takes center stage via Zcash-inspired ZK tech. This encrypts transactions while proving validity, enabling ZKYC (zero-knowledge know-your-customer), private DEXes, and minimal data disclosure. Balaji references Coinbase’s 40-page PDF on replacing traditional KYC, highlighting how ZK could overhaul compliance without sacrificing privacy.
Ideologically, crypto upgrades American values: From British common law to U.S. Constitution to smart contracts—global, equal access via “TCP/IP visas” over H-1Bs. It’s “version 3.0” of freedom, accessible to all regardless of nationality.
Network States: Printing the Cloud onto the Land
Balaji’s vision culminates in “network states”—physical embodiments of online communities, as detailed in his book. Examples include Zuzalu (Ethereum-inspired), Network School, Prospera’s zones in Honduras, and initiatives like Coinbase’s Base Camp or SpaceX’s Starbase. These “print out” digital networks into real-world societies, providing order amid chaos.
As the West faces debt crises and anarchy, the internet—designed to withstand nuclear attacks—endures. Crypto ensures property rights and identity in the cloud, enabling a mammalian reboot after the “dinosaur” empires fall. Balaji urges accelerating this: Privacy isn’t optional; it’s essential for resilient, sovereign communities.
Audience Reactions and Broader Context
The episode has sparked positive feedback in comments. Viewers like @aseideman praise Balaji’s insights, while @Shaqir plans to buy more $ZEC (Zcash), aligning with the privacy focus. @remsee1608 shouts out Monero, another privacy coin, and @sigma_brethren notes AI’s lag behind Balaji’s intellect. These reactions underscore crypto’s community-driven ethos.
Balaji’s ideas build on his prior work, such as interviews with Tim Ferriss (e.g., on Bitcoin’s future and non-cancelability) and his book “The Network State,” which expands on decentralized societies. Similar themes appear in podcasts like “Venture Stories” with Naval Ravikant, discussing blockchains as alternatives to traditional governance.
Closing Thoughts: Creativity and Wordsmithing
Mert wraps by asking about Balaji’s (and Naval’s) prowess in wordplay. Balaji describes it as intuitive crafting—constantly refining concepts like a woodworker shapes figurines. This creative process mirrors his broader approach: Iterating on ideas to navigate complex futures.
Why This Matters Now
In a world of escalating U.S.-China tensions and crypto’s maturation, Balaji’s analysis is timely. As privacy coins and ZK tech gain traction, they offer tools for sovereignty amid surveillance. This episode challenges listeners to think beyond borders, embracing crypto not just for profit but as a ideological lifeline. For policymakers, investors, and innovators, it’s a roadmap to a decentralized tomorrow.
