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NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 Earnings: $57B Record Revenue, Blackwell “Off the Charts,” $65B Guidance – The AI Boom Is Still Accelerating

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November 20, 2025 – NVIDIA just delivered the most dominant quarter in the history of tech and told the world the next one will be even bigger. The market is partying like it’s 2021.

TL;DR

  • Revenue $57.01B (+62% YoY, beat by ~$1.8–2B)
  • Data Center $51.2B (+66% YoY, +$10B sequentially) – now 90% of total revenue
  • GAAP EPS $1.30 (+67% YoY)
  • Q4 guidance $65B (±2%) – obliterates street $61.98B (some buyside whispers were $75B → Jensen sandbagging again)
  • Blackwell sales “off the charts”, cloud GPUs completely sold out for the foreseeable future
  • CFO Colette Kress confirmed ≈$500B Blackwell + Rubin revenue visibility 2025–2026 (analysts now calling it $500B pipeline through FY2027)
  • Gross margin 73.6% (tiny miss due to Blackwell ramp costs), guided back to 75.0% next quarter
  • Free cash flow $22.1B in a single quarter
  • Top 4 customers = 61% of revenue (22% / 15% / 13% / 11%) – concentration risk is real but demand makes it a feature
  • Stock ripped +5.5% after-hours → +$220B+ market cap in minutes, lifting entire AI complex

Key Takeaways

  • Demand is not slowing — it’s compounding. Jensen: “Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI.”
  • Blackwell ramp is unprecedented – already the majority of new Data Center mix, sold out for months, driving the entire $10B sequential jump
  • Gaming ($4.3B) and Automotive ($592M) missed estimates → literally nobody cares when Data Center grew $10B in one quarter
  • Customer concentration: Four hyperscalers = 61% of revenue. Everyone knows who they are. Everyone also knows they can’t build without NVIDIA
  • Margins dipped to 73.6% only because of Blackwell complexity/HBM costs – guided 75% next quarter, street relieved
  • Balance sheet is absurd: $60.6B cash + $22.1B quarterly FCF. Berkshire is only ~$320B ahead
  • Physical AI multi-trillion opportunity already “multi-billion” today

Detailed Summary

NVIDIA printed $57.01 billion in a single quarter — a number larger than the entire annual revenue of 99% of public companies. Data Center alone did $51.2 billion (+66% YoY, +$10 billion sequentially). Let that sink in.

Blackwell is not “ramping” — it’s exploding. It is already the majority of new Data Center revenue and cloud providers are in a literal bidding war for every wafer. Jensen was blunt: “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out.”

Yes, Gaming and Automotive missed estimates (who cares), Pro Visualization crushed it (+56% YoY), but the only number that matters is the $500 billion in confirmed Blackwell + Rubin orders the company can already see through calendar 2026 (Bloomberg Intelligence now calling it $500B pipeline through fiscal 2027).

China export restrictions? Effectively $0 impact in guidance. The rest of the planet is making up for it and then some — sovereign AI factories, enterprises, everyone is building.

Networking (Spectrum-X + InfiniBand) up ~162% YoY to $8.2B+ — the hidden monster line item nobody talks about.

Market & Analyst Reaction

Initial spike was +4%, then kept climbing → closed extended trading up ~5.5%, adding north of $220 billion in market cap. Entire AI food chain ripping: CoreWeave +4%, Nebius +4%, AMD +2%, Micron +2%, Broadcom +2%, Super Micro +8%.

Goldman Sachs (James Schneider) first note post-earnings:

“Strong quarter with upside to guidance should provide relief for the stock… We expect the stock to trade higher following a stronger quarter and guidance relative to the Street.”

X was pure euphoria last night – here are some of the top posts (all >5K likes):

  • https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1991259207878996127 ← Clean chart
  • https://x.com/Quartr_App/status/1991259508941734389 ← Jensen quote card
  • https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1991255966235419112 ← +$205B market cap meme
  • https://x.com/amitisinvesting/status/1991263435493974047 ← Full breakdown thread
  • https://x.com/FromValue/status/1991275128439123451 ← “NVIDIA just printed more FCF than most companies make in revenue”

My Thoughts

This was a “relief rally on steroids”. Anyone still waiting for the AI capex slowdown just got obliterated. The $500 billion visibility isn’t hopium — it’s what they can already see in purchase orders.

The moat is now impenetrable: CUDA + NVLink + Spectrum-X + Grace CPU + Blackwell/Rubin roadmap = Microsoft Windows-level lock-in for the AI era.

At ~44× forward earnings the stock looks expensive until you realize the base case is now ~$260–280B annual revenue run-rate by late 2026. That puts the multiple in the low 20s. That is no longer the bull case — that’s the new floor.

The Christmas rally is officially back on. NVIDIA just saved it.

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