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  • All-In Podcast Recap: Epstein Files, Tether’s Billions, Nvidia Accounting & Poker Psychology

    Live from The Venetian: The Besties break down the Epstein file release, the massive margins of Tether, the Michael Burry vs. Nvidia debate, and a masterclass in risk with Alan Keating.

    In this special live episode recorded during the F1 weekend in Las Vegas, the “Besties” (Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg) reunite in person. The agenda is packed: political intrigue surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, the financial dominance of stablecoins, technical debates on AI chip accounting, and high-stakes poker strategy.

    TL;DR: Executive Summary

    The US government has voted nearly unanimously to release the Epstein files, leading the hosts to speculate that the lack of leaks points to intelligence agency involvement rather than political dirt on Donald Trump. Chamath details a meeting with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, revealing a business holding over $100 billion in US Treasuries with profit margins potentially exceeding 95%. The group then debates Michael Burry’s short position on Nvidia, with Friedberg defending the “useful life” of AI chips under GAAP accounting. Finally, poker legend Alan Keating joins to discuss “soul reading” opponents and mastering fear in high-stakes games.

    Key Takeaways

    • The Epstein Intelligence Theory: The hosts argue that if the files contained damaging information on Donald Trump, it would have been leaked during the Biden administration. The prevailing theory discussed is that Epstein may have been an intelligence asset (CIA/Mossad/Russia), explaining the long-standing secrecy.
    • Tether is a Financial Juggernaut: Tether holds approximately $135 billion in US Treasuries and operates with roughly 100 employees. Chamath estimates the business runs at 95%+ margins, effectively exporting US dollar stability to developing nations while capturing massive interest yields.
    • Nvidia vs. Michael Burry: “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry is shorting the sector, arguing tech companies are “cooking the books” by depreciating AI chips over 6 years when they become obsolete in 3. Friedberg counters that chips retain a “useful life” for inference and background tasks long after they are no longer top-of-the-line.
    • Google Gemini 3: Google has regained the lead on LLM benchmarks with Gemini 3. The conversation highlights a shift toward proprietary silicon (TPUs) and a fragmented chip market, posing a potential long-term risk to Nvidia’s dominance.
    • The “Oppenheimer” Moment: David Friedberg reveals he decided to return as CEO of Oho after watching the movie Oppenheimer, realizing he needed to be an active operator rather than a passive board member.

    Detailed Episode Breakdown

    1. The Epstein Files Release

    In a stunning bipartisan move, the House and Senate voted nearly unanimously to release the Epstein files. The Besties analyzed why this is happening now. Sacks and Chamath suggested that because Epstein was the “most investigated human on earth,” any compromising information regarding Trump would likely have been weaponized politically by now.

    The discussion pivoted to the source of Epstein’s wealth. Chamath noted Epstein managed money for billionaires and charged inexplicable fees for “tax advice”—such as a documented $168 million payment from Apollo’s Leon Black. The hosts speculated that Epstein likely functioned as a spy or asset for intelligence agencies, which would explain the protective layer surrounding the files for so long.

    2. Tether and the Stablecoin Boom

    Chamath shared insights from a dinner with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. Tether’s financials are staggering: approximately $135 billion in US Treasuries and billions more in Bitcoin and gold.

    The hosts discussed the utility of stablecoins in high-inflation economies, where locals use USDT to preserve purchasing power. Because Tether earns the interest on the backing treasuries (rather than passing it to the coin holder), and operates with a lean team, the company generates billions in pure profit. Sacks noted that future US regulations might eventually force stablecoin issuers to share that yield with users, but for now, it remains one of the most profitable business models in the world.

    3. Accounting Corner: Is Nvidia Overvalued?

    Michael Burry is shorting the semiconductor sector, claiming companies are inflating earnings by depreciating Nvidia chips over 6 years despite rapid technological obsolescence.

    Friedberg launched a segment dubbed “Accounting Corner” to rebut this. He explained that under GAAP standards, an asset’s useful life is determined by its ability to generate revenue, not just its technological superiority. Even if an H100 chip isn’t the fastest on the market in year 4, it can still run inference models or handle lower-priority compute tasks, justifying the longer depreciation schedule. Chamath added that tech giants monitor “output tokens” closely; if a chip wasn’t profitable, they would simply turn it off.

    4. Poker Strategy with Alan Keating

    The episode concluded with Alan Keating, a high-stakes poker player famous for his loose, aggressive style. Keating explained his philosophy, which relies less on “solvers” (GTO strategy) and more on “soul reading”—navigating the fear and psychology of the table.

    He broke down a famous hand where he beat Doug Polk with a 4-2 offsuit, explaining that he sensed fear in Polk’s betting patterns on the turn. Keating described his approach as finding “beauty in the chaos” and dragging opponents into “deep water” where they are uncomfortable and prone to errors.

    Editorial Thoughts

    This episode marked a distinct shift in the podcast’s tone regarding crypto, moving from general skepticism to a recognition of the sheer scale and utility of stablecoins like Tether. The “Accounting Corner” segment, while technical, provided critical context for investors trying to value the AI stack—suggesting the AI boom has more fundamental accounting support than bears like Burry believe. Finally, the live format from Las Vegas brought a looser, more energetic dynamic to the conversation, highlighting the chemistry that makes the show work.

  • Peter Thiel on Silicon Valley’s Political Shift, Tech’s Influence, and the Future of Innovation

    In a wide-ranging interview on The Rubin Report with host Dave Rubin, premiered on March 2, 2025, entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel offered his insights into the evolving political landscape of Silicon Valley, the growing influence of tech figures in politics, and the challenges facing science, education, and artificial intelligence (AI). The discussion, which garnered 88,466 views within days of its release, featured Thiel reflecting on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the decline of elite institutions, and the role of his company, Palantir Technologies, in shaping modern governance and security.

    Silicon Valley’s Political Realignment

    Thiel, a co-founder of PayPal and an early backer of President Donald Trump, highlighted what he described as a “miraculous” shift in Silicon Valley’s political leanings. He noted that Trump’s 2024 victory, alongside Vice President JD Vance, defied the expectations of demographic determinism—a theory suggesting voting patterns are rigidly tied to race, gender, or age. “Millions of people had to change their minds,” Thiel said, attributing the shift to a rejection of identity politics and a renewed openness to rational arguments. He pointed to the influence of tech luminaries like Elon Musk and David Sacks, both former PayPal colleagues, who have increasingly aligned with conservative priorities.

    Thiel traced his own contrarian stance to 2016, when supporting Trump was seen as an outlier move in Silicon Valley. He suggested that regulatory pressure from left-leaning governments historically pushed Big Tech toward progressive policies, but a backlash against “woke” culture and political correctness has since spurred a realignment. He cited Musk’s evolution from a liberal-leaning Tesla advocate to a vocal Trump supporter as emblematic of this trend, driven in part by frustration with overbearing regulation and failed progressive policies.

    The Decline of Elite Credentialism

    A significant portion of the conversation focused on the diminishing prestige of elite universities, particularly within the Democratic Party. Thiel observed that while Republicans like Trump (University of Pennsylvania) and Vance (Yale Law School) still tout their Ivy League credentials, Democrats have moved away from such markers of meritocracy. He contrasted past leaders like Bill Clinton (Yale Law) and Barack Obama (Harvard Law) with more recent figures like Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, arguing that the party has transitioned “from smart to dumb,” favoring populist appeal over intellectual elitism.

    Thiel singled out Harvard as a symbol of this decline, describing it as an institution that once shaped political elites but now churns out “robots” ill-equipped for critical thinking. He recounted speaking at Yale in September 2024, where he found classes less rigorous than high school coursework, suggesting a broader rot in higher education. Despite their massive endowments—Harvard’s stands at $50 billion—Thiel likened universities to cities rather than companies, arguing they can persist in dysfunction far longer than a failing business due to entrenched network effects.

    Science, Skepticism, and Stagnation

    Thiel expressed deep skepticism about the state of modern science, asserting that it has become more about securing government funding than achieving breakthroughs. He referenced the resignations of Harvard President Claudine Gay (accused of plagiarism) and Stanford President Marc Tessier-Lavigne (implicated in fraudulent dementia research) as evidence of pervasive corruption. “Most of these people are not scientists,” he claimed, describing academia as a “stagnant scientific enterprise” hindered by hyper-specialization, peer review consensus, and a lack of genuine debate.

    He argued that scientific discourse has tilted toward excessive dogmatism, stifling skepticism on topics like climate change, COVID-19 origins, and vaccine efficacy. Thiel advocated for a “wholesale reevaluation” of science, suggesting that fields like string theory and cancer research have promised progress for decades without delivering. He posited that exposing this stagnation could undermine universities’ credibility, particularly if their strongest claims—scientific excellence—are proven hollow.

    Palantir’s Role and Philosophy

    When asked about Palantir, the data analytics company he co-founded in 2003, Thiel offered a poetic analogy, likening it to a “seeing stone” from The Lord of the Rings—a powerful tool for understanding the world, originally intended for good. Palantir was born out of a post-9/11 mission to enhance security while minimizing civil liberty violations, a response to what Thiel saw as the heavy-handed, low-tech solutions of the Patriot Act era. Today, the company works with Western governments and militaries to sift through data and improve resource coordination.

    Thiel emphasized Palantir’s dual role: empowering governments while constraining overreach through transparency. He speculated that the National Security Agency (NSA) resisted adopting Palantir’s software early on, not just due to a “not invented here” bias, but because it would have created a trackable record of actions, limiting unaccountable excesses like those tied to the FISA courts. “It’s a constraint on government action,” he said, suggesting that such accountability could deter future abuses.

    Accountability Without Revenge

    Addressing the Trump administration’s priorities, Thiel proposed a “Truth and Reconciliation Commission” modeled on post-apartheid South Africa to investigate recent government overreach—such as the FISA process and COVID-19 policies—without resorting to mass arrests. “We need transparency into what exactly was going on in the sausage-making factory,” he said, arguing that exposing figures like Anthony Fauci and the architects of the Russia collusion narrative would discourage future misconduct. He contrasted this with the left’s focus on historical grievances, urging a focus on the “recent past” instead.

    AI and the Future

    On AI, Thiel balanced optimism with caution. He acknowledged existential risks like killer robots and bioweapons but warned against overregulation, citing proposals like “global compute governance” as a path to totalitarian control. He framed AI as a critical test: progress is essential to avoid societal stagnation, yet unchecked development could amplify dangers. “It’s up to humans,” he concluded, rejecting both extreme optimism and pessimism in favor of agency-driven solutions.

    Wrapping Up

    Thiel’s conversation with Rubin painted a picture of a tech visionary cautiously hopeful about America’s trajectory under Trump’s second term. From Silicon Valley’s political awakening to the decline of elite institutions and the promise of technological innovation, he sees an opportunity for renewal—if human agency prevails. As Rubin titled the episode “Gray Pilled Peter Thiel,” Thiel’s blend of skepticism and possibility underscores his belief that the future, while uncertain, remains ours to shape.