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  • The Benefits of Bubbles: Why the AI Boom’s Madness Is Humanity’s Shortcut to Progress

    TL;DR:

    Ben Thompson’s “The Benefits of Bubbles” argues that financial manias like today’s AI boom, while destined to burst, play a crucial role in accelerating innovation and infrastructure. Drawing on Carlota Perez and the newer work of Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber, Thompson contends that bubbles aren’t just speculative excess—they’re coordination mechanisms that align capital, talent, and belief around transformative technologies. Even when they collapse, the lasting payoff is progress.

    Summary

    Ben Thompson revisits the classic question: are bubbles inherently bad? His answer is nuanced. Yes, bubbles pop. But they also build. Thompson situates the current AI explosion—OpenAI’s trillion-dollar commitments and hyperscaler spending sprees—within the historical pattern described by Carlota Perez in Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. Perez’s thesis: every major technological revolution begins with an “Installation Phase” fueled by speculation and waste. The bubble funds infrastructure that outlasts its financiers, paving the way for a “Deployment Phase” where society reaps the benefits.

    Thompson extends this logic using Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber’s concept of “Inflection Bubbles,” which he contrasts with destructive “Mean-Reversion Bubbles” like subprime mortgages. Inflection bubbles occur when investors bet that the future will be radically different, not just marginally improved. The dot-com bubble, for instance, built the Internet’s cognitive and physical backbone—from fiber networks to AJAX-driven interactivity—that enabled the next two decades of growth.

    Applied to AI, Thompson sees similar dynamics. The bubble is creating massive investment in GPUs, fabs, and—most importantly—power generation. Unlike chips, which decay quickly, energy infrastructure lasts decades and underpins future innovation. Microsoft, Amazon, and others are already building gigawatts of new capacity, potentially spurring a long-overdue resurgence in energy growth. This, Thompson suggests, may become the “railroads and power plants” of the AI age.

    He also highlights AI’s “cognitive capacity payoff.” As everyone from startups to Chinese labs works on AI, knowledge diffusion is near-instantaneous, driving rapid iteration. Investment bubbles fund parallel experimentation—new chip architectures, lithography startups, and fundamental rethinks of computing models. Even failures accelerate collective learning. Hobart and Huber call this “parallelized innovation”: bubbles compress decades of progress into a few intense years through shared belief and FOMO-driven coordination.

    Thompson concludes with a warning against stagnation. He contrasts the AI mania with the risk-aversion of the 2010s, when Big Tech calcified and innovation slowed. Bubbles, for all their chaos, restore the “spiritual energy” of creation—a willingness to take irrational risks for something new. While the AI boom will eventually deflate, its benefits, like power infrastructure and new computing paradigms, may endure for generations.

    Key Takeaways

    • Bubbles are essential accelerators. They fund infrastructure and innovation that rational markets never would.
    • Carlota Perez’s “Installation Phase” framework explains how speculative capital lays the groundwork for future growth.
    • Inflection bubbles drive paradigm shifts. They aren’t about small improvements—they bet on orders-of-magnitude change.
    • The AI bubble is building the real economy. Fabs, power plants, and chip ecosystems are long-term assets disguised as mania.
    • Cognitive capacity grows in parallel. When everyone builds simultaneously, progress compounds across fields.
    • FOMO has a purpose. Speculative energy coordinates capital and creativity at scale.
    • Stagnation is the alternative. Without bubbles, societies drift toward safety, bureaucracy, and creative paralysis.
    • The true payoff of AI may be infrastructure. Power generation, not GPUs, could be the era’s lasting legacy.
    • Belief drives progress. Mania is a social technology for collective imagination.

    1-Sentence Summary:

    Ben Thompson argues that the AI boom is a classic “inflection bubble” — a burst of coordinated mania that wastes money in the short term but builds the physical and intellectual foundations of the next technological age.

  • The Untapped Potential of LNG Cold Energy: A Chilling Opportunity

    tl;dw

    Asianometry’s video discusses the underutilized “cold energy” produced during LNG regasification (the process of turning liquefied natural gas back into its gaseous state). This cold energy, usually wasted, has potential applications in power generation (using methods like the Rankine cycle), industrial processes (like air separation and carbon capture), desalination, and even cooling data centers. The video highlights examples of countries already using this technology and emphasizes the vast potential of this currently wasted resource as the LNG industry grows.

    The video from Asianometry explores the potential of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) cold energy.

    • LNG Transportation: LNG is transported in liquid form, requiring significant energy to cool the gas and then reheat it (regasification) at the destination.
    • Cold Energy as a Byproduct: The regasification process generates a large amount of cold energy, which is often wasted.
    • Potential Applications: The video discusses various applications for this cold energy, including:
      • Power Generation: Using the temperature difference to drive turbines and generate electricity.
      • Industrial Processes: Improving the efficiency of air separation and carbon capture.
      • Desalination: Enhancing desalination processes by using the cold energy to cool the system.
    • Examples: The video highlights examples of countries like Japan and Thailand that are already utilizing LNG cold energy for industrial purposes, such as air separation.

    The video concludes by emphasizing the significant potential of LNG cold energy as a valuable resource and encourages further exploration of its applications to improve energy efficiency and sustainability.

    The global demand for energy is constantly increasing, driving the search for more efficient and sustainable solutions. While Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has emerged as a crucial energy source, a significant byproduct of its processing – cold energy – remains largely untapped. This article delves into the potential of LNG cold energy, exploring its origins, promising applications, and the challenges that need to be addressed to fully realize its potential.

    The Rise of LNG and the Cold Energy Byproduct:

    Natural gas, a relatively clean-burning fossil fuel, plays a vital role in the global energy mix. However, transporting natural gas over long distances via pipelines can be economically challenging. LNG provides a solution by cooling natural gas to approximately -162°C (-260°F), condensing it into a liquid that occupies 600 times less volume. This liquefaction process enables efficient transportation by specialized tankers across oceans.

    Upon arrival at import terminals, LNG undergoes regasification, the process of converting it back into its gaseous state for distribution through pipelines. This regasification requires adding heat to the extremely cold LNG, resulting in a significant amount of “cold energy” – a temperature differential between the LNG and the surrounding environment. This cold energy, often around -15°C (5°F), is typically dissipated as waste, representing a substantial loss of potential energy.

    Understanding the Regasification Process:

    The regasification process relies on specialized equipment called vaporizers. Several types exist, each with its own advantages and disadvantages:

    • Direct Fired Vaporizers: An older technology using burners to directly heat the LNG. These are less common today due to corrosion and efficiency concerns.
    • Submerged Combustion Vaporizers (SCVs): These vaporizers pass cold LNG through pipes submerged in hot water heated by submerged combustion. While widely used, particularly in the United States, SCVs can suffer from corrosion caused by acidic byproducts of combustion.
    • Open Rack Vaporizers (ORVs): ORVs utilize the temperature difference between LNG and warmer seawater. LNG flows through pipes exposed to seawater, facilitating heat exchange. This method is highly efficient where suitable seawater temperatures are available.

    Regardless of the method used, the regasification process inevitably generates a significant amount of cold energy.

    Unlocking the Potential: Applications of LNG Cold Energy:

    The potential applications of LNG cold energy are diverse and offer significant opportunities for energy efficiency and sustainability:

    • Power Generation: Utilizing the temperature differential between the cold LNG and the ambient environment can drive power generation systems.
      • Direct Expansion: This method directly uses the pressure change during regasification to drive a turbine and generate electricity.
      • Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC): ORC systems employ a working fluid with a low boiling point. The cold LNG cools the working fluid, creating a temperature gradient that drives a turbine and generates power. Cascading ORC systems can further enhance efficiency.
    • Industrial Applications:
      • Air Separation: The cryogenic temperatures of LNG can significantly reduce the energy required for separating air into its constituent components, such as nitrogen and oxygen, valuable for various industries.
      • Cryogenic Carbon Capture: Cooling flue gas from industrial processes to very low temperatures can facilitate the separation and capture of CO2, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
    • Desalination:
      • Thermal Desalination Enhancement: Integrating LNG cold energy into thermal desalination processes, such as Multi-Stage Flash (MSF), can improve efficiency by cooling the condensing steam.
      • Freezing Desalination: This method uses cold energy to freeze seawater into an ice slurry, separating the ice (freshwater) from the brine. While technically challenging, it offers the potential for high energy efficiency.
    • Data Center Cooling: Data centers consume vast amounts of energy for cooling. Utilizing LNG cold energy can provide a sustainable and efficient cooling solution, reducing their environmental impact.
    • Cold Storage and Food Preservation: The cold energy can be directly used for cooling warehouses, cold storage facilities, and other applications requiring low temperatures, such as food preservation and pharmaceutical storage.

    Challenges and Future Outlook:

    Despite the significant potential, several challenges hinder the widespread adoption of LNG cold energy utilization:

    • Location Constraints: LNG import terminals are often located far from potential end-users of the cold energy, requiring infrastructure for transport.
    • Economic Viability: The capital costs associated with implementing cold energy utilization technologies need to be carefully evaluated against the potential energy savings.
    • Matching Supply and Demand: The continuous availability of cold energy from regasification needs to be matched with consistent demand for its applications.

    However, growing awareness of energy efficiency and sustainability is driving increased interest in LNG cold energy utilization. Technological advancements, policy support, and innovative business models are paving the way for greater adoption of these technologies.

    Overlooked

    LNG cold energy represents a significant, yet often overlooked, opportunity to improve energy efficiency and sustainability. By strategically implementing various applications, we can transform this waste stream into a valuable resource, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable energy future. As the LNG industry continues to grow, so too does the potential for harnessing this chilling opportunity.

  • Unmasking the Double Standards: Environmentalists’ Contradictory Stance on Bitcoin and Electric Cars

    Unmasking the Double Standards: Environmentalists' Contradictory Stance on Bitcoin and Electric Cars

    In recent years, the focus on climate change and its potential consequences has grown exponentially. With this increase in attention has come a wave of environmental activism, with many supporters advocating for sustainable technology and reduced carbon emissions. However, some environmentalists have been accused of hypocrisy for their seemingly contradictory views on various technologies, specifically Bitcoin and electric cars. This article will explore the reasons behind this criticism and examine the environmental impact of both technologies.

    The Environmental Impact of Bitcoin

    Bitcoin, a digital cryptocurrency, has come under fire from environmentalists due to its significant energy consumption. The process of mining Bitcoin, which involves solving complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and create new coins, requires massive amounts of computing power. This power demand has led to the consumption of vast amounts of electricity, with some estimates suggesting that Bitcoin’s total energy usage rivals that of entire countries.

    Critics argue that this energy consumption contributes to increased greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating climate change. Additionally, many Bitcoin mining operations rely on non-renewable energy sources such as coal, further contributing to pollution and environmental degradation.

    The Environmental Benefits of Electric Cars

    In contrast, electric vehicles (EVs) are often hailed as a green alternative to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. By replacing fossil fuel-powered cars with electric ones, environmentalists argue that we can significantly reduce transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, which account for a significant portion of global emissions.

    EVs also have the potential to run on renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, further reducing their environmental impact. Additionally, electric cars are generally more energy-efficient than their gasoline-powered counterparts, requiring less energy to travel the same distance.

    The Hypocrisy Argument

    Given the environmental concerns associated with Bitcoin, it’s not surprising that many environmentalists oppose its widespread adoption. However, some critics argue that this opposition is hypocritical when considering the support for electric vehicles, which also have an environmental impact.

    While it is true that EVs have a lower overall carbon footprint than traditional cars, they are not entirely devoid of environmental concerns. For example, the production of batteries for electric vehicles requires the extraction of minerals like lithium and cobalt, which can have significant environmental and social consequences.

    Furthermore, the electricity used to power electric cars often comes from non-renewable sources like coal and natural gas, which contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Although EVs can be powered by renewable energy, this is not always the case, and critics argue that environmentalists should be more consistent in their evaluation of the environmental impacts of various technologies.

    While there is no denying that both Bitcoin and electric vehicles have environmental implications, it is essential to recognize that the impacts of these technologies are not equal. Electric cars offer a more sustainable alternative to traditional vehicles, while the environmental concerns surrounding Bitcoin are harder to justify.

    However, critics do raise a valid point in calling for consistency in evaluating the environmental impact of different technologies. Environmentalists must strive to apply the same scrutiny to all technologies and consider the broader context in which they operate. Only then can we work towards a truly sustainable future.