Bill Perkins on Die With Zero: Time Buckets, Future Bill and $15M Art

Bill Perkins, the natural gas trader and hedge fund manager who wrote Die With Zero, explains why your net worth should peak on a date, not at a number. On episode 878 of My First Million, he tells Shaan Puri and Sam Parr how he made his money, why ego stops more people than money risk, how to plan life in time buckets instead of a bucket list, where he is failing his own rules, and why he paid $15 million for Ernie Barnes’s The Sugar Shack.

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Perkins got rich shorting natural gas as a trader, and says he should have taken even more risk when young. His core idea is that money, health and time have to be allocated across a whole life, because the body is a decaying asset and some experiences only fit certain ages. He admits he is shortchanging “future Bill” on fitness and is hiring a traveling trainer to fix it. Readers most often change their inheritance plans after the book. The episode ends with the story of the painting, why fame shrinks your world, and a possible next book with Tim Urban.

Thoughts

Perkins’s confession about his health is the part of the episode that tests his framework hardest, and it holds up. Four years ago he was at 8% body fat with a VO2 max in the top 1%. Now he puts himself at 16% to 18% body fat with a VO2 max barely average for his age. His doctor had him list the things he wants to do in the last decade of his life, and at his current trajectory he cannot do about 80% of them. Die With Zero is usually read as a book about spending money, but in his own life the binding constraint is health. Money can be converted into experiences late in life; a weak body cannot. His fix is telling too: if he cannot hold himself accountable, he will “outsource accountability” by hiring a trainer who travels with him. That is the same move a trader makes when he knows his discipline fails under pressure: change the system rather than rely on willpower.

The $15 million painting looks like a contradiction for the die-with-zero guy, and he frames it as a trade. He says museums and collectors long ignored African-American art, so the market underprices work like Ernie Barnes’s The Sugar Shack compared with its cultural weight. He went into the auction expecting to pay $3 million to $5 million, ended at $15 million, and says he “stole” it. He also says a later Barnes piece he could have bought for a couple of hundred thousand dollars went for about $2 million after his purchase reset the market. So the purchase is both: a joyful experience he had wanted since seeing the painting on TV as a kid, and an asset he believes is mispriced. That is the honest version of die with zero for a very rich person. Not every dollar spent has to disappear, as long as owning the thing makes the life better now. Lending it to museums instead of hanging it at home, as his kids insisted, fits too.

The most practical change readers make is moving inheritance earlier. Perkins’s point is blunt: by the time most parents die, the children are often 60, and the money arrives when it can do the least good. Sam Parr’s version is a good template. He told his in-laws to give money now, spend it on themselves, or spend it on something everyone could enjoy together, and they bought a vacation house big enough for the whole family. Perkins also shows the idea is not only for the rich. A military retiree with a guaranteed pension realized the savings lump was pointless, and many readers changed decisions that cost nothing at all: driving the kids to school without complaining, visiting a mother, choosing which friends get their time. Time allocation, not money, is where most people can act on the book.

His reason for not becoming “the guy” behind his own book is the same logic applied to fame. He watched friends like Michael Phelps and Dan Bilzerian unable to walk through shops in Capri, and concluded that fame shrinks your world into a bubble and makes you a slave to a persona. For someone who values travel and meeting strangers, that is a direct cost to fulfillment. It explains why he turned down running a Die With Zero podcast himself and keeps a “no new projects” rule his wife holds him to. Many authors build a course and a brand around one book; Perkins is choosing to leave money and attention on the table because of what they would cost him in experiences.

The early trading talk has a lesson he would now give his younger self: maximize risk when young. He kept much of his money out of his own fund out of caution, and now calls that a mistake, since he could always have found another job. Yet he also says the name of the game is staying in the game, with his fund swinging from down 50% to up 250%. Both ideas fit together. Concentrate when your human capital is large and your downside is just a job hunt, and avoid the bets that can knock you out for good. It is the same time-bucket logic he applies to skiing and backpacking, turned on a portfolio.

Key Takeaways

Perkins started as a clerk on the New York Mercantile Exchange floor, became an over-the-counter broker, and got rich as a natural gas trader in Houston after deregulation in 1995. Most of his money came from being short natural gas as winter risk premiums bled out.
He describes traders like him as “glorified insurance agents” who sell hedges when the price is above their view of fair value.
His fund is built to get rich, not stay rich: it can lose 100% or return 300%. It has swung between roughly $100 million and $250 million in a year.
If he started over, he would go into equities, where funds are larger, fees are a profit center and the market has positive drift.
Your net worth peak is a date, not a number. Because the body is a decaying asset, extra money buys less fulfillment every year.
Your Money or Your Life started his thinking with its definition of money as something you exchange hours of your life for.
Most people who avoid a risky career move are protecting their ego from a status drop, not their finances from a loss.
Plan life in time buckets of three to five years. Experiences like ski trips with friends belong early and do not transfer to later decades.
Balance is a pendulum, not an even slice every day. Some years are for grinding, some for travel, family or rest.
Perkins says he is shortchanging his future self on health and is outsourcing accountability to a traveling trainer.
The most common reader change is giving inheritances while heirs are young enough to use them, and people retiring parents early to spend time with grandchildren.
He still works, running his fund and the satellite imagery startup SkyFi, because there is still marginal fulfillment in the extra dollar for him, mainly yachting and private travel.
He paid $15 million for The Sugar Shack, believes African-American art is underpriced, and lends the painting to museums.
He avoids fame because it shrinks your world and traps you in a persona, and may write a next book with Tim Urban.

Chapters

00:55 How Bill Made His Money

Perkins went from NYMEX clerk to broker to trader, moving to Houston when natural gas deregulation created trading desks there. He made most of his money short natural gas, selling futures to people afraid of winter price spikes. He reportedly made close to a billion dollars for his employer, and regrets not keeping more of his own money in the fund when he was young.

05:15 The Edges of Great Investors and Staying in the Game

Shaan lists three edges: temperament, information and arbitrage. Perkins says his fund uses the first two, and that no amount of knowledge helps if your amygdala takes over after losses. He compares trading to writing hurricane insurance: you will have terrible years, and the winners are the ones who survive them.

12:20 No Parties at 85 and the Net Worth Peak

At 57, Perkins says he is in the back quarter of his life and no longer wants to trade current years for capital he cannot use at 85. His early goal was to be a millionaire by 30, a “cookie cutter answer.” Over his thirties he concluded the right target is a date, set by when money stops converting into fulfillment.

18:15 The Well, the Cup and the Fear of a Wasted Life

Shaan reads an excerpt he emailed to his family: people pump a well all their life, take a sip, and die thirsty. Perkins says he wrote the book because he was afraid of wasting his life, a fear he puts above losing money or status.

20:00 Crush Your Ego and Reprogram Your Brain

Perkins argues most people who skip a business or opportunity fear the status drop, not the money risk. He calls much of what we want “cultural osmosis,” and judges each of his reactions by whether it works for his goals. The hosts link this to the maximum accountability exercise poker player Daniel Negreanu described, which Perkins also did.

32:55 Seasons of Balance, Time Buckets and Planning the Year

With children aged 22 and 19 and an 11-month-old son, Perkins describes balance as a pendulum across years. He explains time buckets: you have many small deaths, the college you, the single you, the young parent, and each period suits different experiences. He and his wife plan to live in Japan while their son is under five; Shaan spends three days a year planning his.

38:30 What Bill Regrets Right Now

Perkins names his health as his biggest dissatisfaction and dismisses his own excuses about a new baby and lost sleep. Most of the activities he wants in his last decade are out of reach at his current VO2 max, so he is hiring a trainer who can travel with him.

42:15 Die With Zero and What Readers Change

The title also means dying with zero regrets, which Perkins defines as always doing your best. Sam explains how the book changed his family vacations and his in-laws’ plans. Perkins says readers most often rethink inheritance, retirement dates and how they spend time, and recalls the friend whose six-week trip he skipped in his twenties.

52:35 Playing the Money Game and What Bill Spends On

Perkins still runs his fund and the startup SkyFi, and keeps working because extra money still buys him fulfillment, mostly yachting and private travel. He wants a large garden with bees later, when his world shrinks and he has stories looking for friends. The hosts debate offices, and Perkins says young people need in-person connection.

60:35 Spending $15M on a Painting, Fame and the Next Book

Perkins tells how his friend John Arnold flagged The Sugar Shack, how a rival bidder told him “I’m not going to stop,” and how the price ran to $15 million. He explains the collector’s role and the arbitrage he sees, why he avoids fame, and that he may write a book with Tim Urban, possibly on purpose and relationships.

Notable Quotes

“This is a fund to get rich, not stay rich, and get rich is concentration risk.”
Bill Perkins, on his trading style

“I was very very afraid of wasting my life.”
Bill Perkins, on why he wrote Die With Zero

“You just don’t need to be right, you need to be loved.”
Bill Perkins, on ego in his marriage

“If I can’t be accountable, I need to outsource accountability.”
Bill Perkins, on hiring a traveling trainer

“Why am I waiting to die to give somebody their inheritance?”
Bill Perkins, on the change readers make most

“The role of the collector is to signal to future generations what is worth preserving.”
Bill Perkins, on buying The Sugar Shack

“Fame shrinks your world and you go into a bubble.”
Bill Perkins, on why he does not want to be famous

Watch the full conversation here.